fair.def
YEAR VOTE PARTY PERSON DURATION WAR GROWTH INFLATION GOODNEWS
Obs: 31
1. YEAR
2. VOTE = Incumbent share of the two-party presidential vote.
3. PARTY = 1 if there is a Democratic incumbent at the time of the election and -1 if there is a Republican incumbent.
4. PERSON = 1 if the incumbent is running for election and 0 otherwise.
5. DURATION = 0 if the incumbent party has been in power for one term, 1 if the incumbent party has been in power for two consecutive terms, 1.25 if the incumbent party has been in power for three consecutive terms, 1.50 for four consecutive terms, and so on.
6. WAR = 1 for the elections of 1920, 1944, and 1948 and 0 otherwise.
7. GROWTH = growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first three quarters of the election year (annual rate).
8. INFLATION = absolute value of the growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the administration (annual rate) except for 1920, 1944, and 1948, where the values are zero.
9. GOODNEWS = number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate except for 1920, 1944, and 1948, where the values are zero.
Data source: The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update, Ray C. Fair, November 1, 2002; obtained from
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
YEAR | 31 1940 36.36848 1880 2000
VOTE | 31 52.30474 6.168602 36.119 62.458
PARTY | 31 -.0967742 1.011759 -1 1
PERSON | 31 .5806452 .5016103 0 1
DURATION | 31 .7258065 .6719215 0 2
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
WAR | 31 .0967742 .3005372 0 1
GROWTH | 31 .5547097 5.614765 -14.557 11.677
INFLATION | 31 2.678 2.176599 0 7.926
GOODNEWS | 31 5.387097 2.836399 0 10